Market outlook for 2016
The 2016 outlook was released on January 20, 2016. Sberbank retains the right to review the forecast during the year depending on the external macroeconomic factors
Given the 2016 base scenario with an oil price of USD35 per barrel, we expect GDP to decline 2.2% by year end, slowing down its fall compared to 2015. Inflation will slow down to 8.5% given an average exchange rate of 77.4 RUB/USD.
Corporate lending will continue to slow down, while retail lending may show a decline of 3% to 5%.
We expect customers to continue saving, and both private and corporate deposits will show double-digit growth in 2016.
|GDP growth %, average||-2.2|
|Inflation %, average||8.5|
|Capital outflow, USD bln, for the period||-46|
|Loans to corporates, growth rate, nominal, %||~
|Loans to individuals, growth rate, nominal, %||~ -3-5|
|Retail deposits, growth rate, nominal, %||~
|Corporate deposits, growth rate, nominal, %||~12-14|